How has our population changed?
When released in 2015, the first Tasmanian Population Growth Strategy set a target of increasing the state’s population to 650,000 persons by 2050. This included an incremental population target of 570,000 persons by 2030 which was achieved eight years early, in the March quarter 2022, with positive impacts on our economy and labour market. As at 30 December 2023, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures estimated Tasmania’s population at 574,705 persons.
Tasmania’s annual rate of population growth peaked in 2018-19 (2.1 per cent growth), but has since decreased. Our annual growth rate in the December 2023 quarter was 0.41 per cent.
International migration is a significant contributor to growth, with net interstate migration tending to be more volatile and less significant overall in the long term. Natural increase (births minus deaths) has been decreasing over time. In 2022, our total fertility rate was 1.5 (down from 2.1 in 2006).
Like many countries world-wide, Tasmania is ageing both structurally and numerically. Around 21 per cent of our population were aged 65 years and older in 2023. Despite the state’s positive progress in population growth in recent years, particularly in the 20-34 year old age group since 2016, our population continues to be the oldest in the country.
Our median age of 42 years at the time of the 2021 Census (up from 26 years in 1971) is four years older than the national median. Chart 1 below illustrates how our population is projected to continue to grow older over time.
ABS Census 2021 figures surprised many in confirming that by mid-2021 there were around 26,000 extra people living in Tasmania than had been previously estimated. The figures helped to make sense of the strain experienced by local systems over recent years.
The ABS provides the following 2021 Census highlights for Tasmania:
- Households are getting smaller. In 2021, the average number of people who lived in each household was 2.4, a decrease from 3.4 people in 1971. In 2021, 67.6 per cent of households were family households.
- The most common type of family in Tasmania was families with no children. At that time 44.5 per cent of families were couples with no children and 17.3 per cent were one parent families.
- Most people in Tasmania were born in Australia. The proportion of people who were born overseas has increased over time. In 1971, 10.2 per cent of people were born overseas. This increased to 15.3 per cent in 2021.
- Around 30,000 people identified as being of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin in 2021, making up 5.4 per cent of the population.2
All Tasmanian Local Government Areas (LGAs), except for Flinders, grew between 2016 and 2023. The southern region, particularly around the capital city, continues to be significantly more populated. The Greater Hobart area (Clarence, Glenorchy, Hobart, and Kingborough LGAs) and Launceston experienced the highest growth in the number of people. Sorell and Brighton saw the highest proportional growth since 2016, at 21.77 per cent and 19.97 per cent respectively. Population growth is expected to continue to be concentrated in and around Hobart, putting strain on existing infrastructure and services.
Between 2015-16 and 2022-23, Tasmania’s economy grew by 20.3 per cent in real terms. As at May 2024, employment in Tasmania was 18.6 per cent higher than May 2015.
These strong employment conditions have seen the state’s unemployment rate fall to around a historically low level of 4.0 per cent in May 2024, down 2.5 percentage points from the unemployment rate of 6.5 per cent recorded in May 2015. While Treasury has forecast that economic growth going forward will moderate reflecting the expected slowdown in the global economy, the outlook for Tasmania remains positive.
Tasmania’s population projections provide more localised data and are a useful resource to guide future planning. The Tasmanian Department of Treasury and Finance’s medium series projects continuous growth for Tasmania’s population, peaking at 641,045 in June 2053.
The Department of Treasury and Finance’s 2024 population projections are shown in Chart 3 below. To view state, regional and local government projection data visit: population.tas.gov.au.
Click the chart thumbnails below to view full size.
