Consultation Paper - Refreshing Tasmania's Population Strategy

January 2023

The Tasmanian Government acknowledges the ancient history of the Tasmanian Aboriginal people as the First People of lutruwita/Tasmania. For over 2,000 generations, Tasmanian Aboriginal peoples’ health and wellbeing has been and continues to be based on a deep and continuous connection to family, community and the land, sea and waterways.

Introduction

Growing better

In 2015 the Tasmanian Government launched its first Population Growth Strategy with an ambitious agenda to increase Tasmania’s population to 650,000 by 2050. We reached the 2030 population milestone eight years ahead of target and want to build on this success. A refreshed Population Strategy will support this.

Today our economy is one of the strongest in the country, with more Tasmanians in work than ever before, including a record number of women.

The Government continues to deliver a bold program of life enhancing infrastructure in our roads, schools, health and housing sectors to support this growth along with investing in job creation and workforce development. Harnessing our state’s competitive advantages in renewable energy and our net zero footprint is increasingly central to ensuring we have a diverse and future resilient economy.

The unprecedented population growth over recent years has come with its challenges. We know Tasmania has an ageing population, and we need a continued focus on balancing this with prime working age people between 15 and 64, to support our quality of life.

As noted by the Premier in launching the Tasmanian Government’s commitment to a wellbeing framework, it is recognised that economic growth alone does not account for a community’s success or progress over time. Health, belonging and happiness are key success factors and safe and inclusive communities that attract and retain people from all walks of life are a key priority.

To facilitate the development of a refreshed Population Strategy, the question at the heart of this Consultation Paper is how can we better plan for and manage future population trends and issues? This includes how to achieve population growth in a sustainable way that respects what is uniquely Tasmanian and to ensure everyone benefits. In this Paper you’ll hear from a number of personas. These are research based characters, created to give voice to some of the real experiences of people living in Tasmania.

Four new themes for the refreshed Population Strategy are proposed and your input is welcomed on how we progress to grow our communities and improve the lives of all those who choose to live here.

Minister’s invitation

Now is an important time to reenvisage how we can best plan for the future of our state’s changing population and the Tasmanian Government is keen to hear your ideas.

Much has shifted since we launched our first Population Growth Strategy in 2015, with a very positive increase in the number of people choosing Tasmania as their home. In response to this, we are refreshing the Strategy to reflect our changing circumstances and to facilitate long-term sustainable population growth.

Population growth is a key strategic focus for the Government because it is a major driver of economic development. Increasing Tasmania’s population will help to stimulate investment and employment, spark innovation and diversity and increase our labour force. This is key to supporting our vision of Tasmania being the best place in the country to live, work, invest and raise a family.

From a population planning perspective, everyone living in Tasmania is considered as a Tasmanian, a person with strengths, aspirations and needs; someone who can make a positive contribution. I invite all Tasmanians to have your say on the questions raised in this Consultation Paper.

Hon Guy Barnett MP
Minister for State Development

How to have your say

We encourage you to read this Consultation Paper before making your submission. Specific questions for your consideration are included towards the end of the paper. We also welcome your general feedback on the direction of the refreshed Population Strategy.

The closing date for submissions will be midnight on Sunday, 5 March 2023 (AEDST).

Submissions are usually written documents, but they can be pictures or short videos or voice recordings. There is no set format for submissions. Submissions can contain facts, opinions, and recommendations for action. Ideally, they address all or some of the questions raised in the Consultation Paper and draw on your particular knowledge or experience.

Email your submission to consultation@stategrowth.tas.gov.au including your name, address, and any relevant organisation details.

Important information to note regarding submissions and how your personal information is protected can be found here.

For more information about this work please contact the Department of State Growth by email consultation@stategrowth.tas.gov.au or phone 03 6165 5305.

Timeline

• Consultation – Have your say – January-March 2023
• Refreshed Strategy release in the second half of 2023
• Implementation of the Strategy begins at the end of 2023
• Evaluation and sharing of data to commence in February 2024
• Population Strategy updated every five to 10 years

Improving how we plan for and manage future population trends and issues

Population growth is important to Tasmania to support the economy, provide essential services and encourage greater diversity.

Tasmania’s population has seen very positive growth over the last seven years, and with this has come some growing pains. Recognising this, the Tasmanian Government is refreshing the 2015 Population Growth Strategy to reflect our changing circumstances and help prepare for a potential range of medium and long-term scenarios.

Changes to the size of our population affects the lives of Tasmanians. Parts of our state are being affected by population dynamics in different ways as the nature and size of our communities change, for example with age, skills mix and family formation.

The Australian, state and territory, and local governments share responsibility for many government policies that help shape population change, and some policies are the exclusive responsibility of one level of government. Employers and community members also play an important role in influencing Tasmanians’ quality of life.

Population change impacts most aspects of public policy. Understanding population trends and implications is a critical step towards better planning that is inclusive, agile, makes real change and delivers services where they are needed most.

Refreshing our Population Strategy will put us in a better position to plan for and manage future trends and issues through developing a stronger whole-of-government approach. Better integration of government will provide an increased capability for sharing, linking, and analysing population data. Over time, this improved capability can inform and integrate with a broad range of Tasmanian Government mechanisms including the Wellbeing Framework, sustainability strategy and gender equity initiatives with the shared purpose of improving population outcomes.

Benefits and challenges of population growth

Benefits

• stronger economic growth
• vibrant cities and regions
• stimulates employment
• sparks innovation and productivity
• increases in skilled, prime working age people
• increased labour force participation
• likely improved productivity
• sustains a broader range of industries
• improves the viability of services for community members
• social contribution of migrants, bringing new ideas, perspectives and relationships
• increase in GST funding from the Australian Government due to calculation being based on population size
• increased tax base to invest in government services such as health, education, social housing
• improved living standards
• increased investment leading to job creation.

Challenges

• congestion
• increasing pressures on government services
• uneven growth and decline in different areas causing some services to be unsustainable
• housing supply and diversity
• maintaining Tasmania’s low emissions profile with a growing population
• social cohesion.

Context

The most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports the state’s population increased by 3,608 people (0.64 per cent growth rate) to 571,517 in the year ending June 2022[1]. This means that we exceeded our 2030 population interim target of 570,000 eight years early. From where we are now, an average population growth of approximately 0.45 per cent per annum is needed to achieve the 2015 Population Strategy’s 2050 population target. This equates to a net annual increase of around 2,500 to 3,000 people per year.

Despite the state’s positive progress in population growth, particularly in the 20-34 year old age group since 2016, the Tasmanian population continues to be the oldest in the country. Our median age of 42 years at the time of the 2021 Census is four years older than the national median of 38 and 20.4 per cent of our community members are over 65 years. In six of our 29 Local Government Areas (LGAs), 25 per cent or above of the population is 65 years old and older. Although the population itself grew between the June quarter 2006 to the June quarter 2021, the proportion of Tasmania’s population that is prime working age reduced by 3 percentage points, those aged 65 and over increased by 5.8 percentage points and young people under the age of 15 reduced by 2.8 percentage points over this period. Overall, this shift in population demonstrates Tasmania’s structurally ageing population.

Population ageing is likely to affect the future supply of labour and our economic growth. This is anticipated to be exacerbated as the baby boomer generation retires. In addition, demand on health and aged care services will also increase. Without intervention, population ageing is likely to affect the ability of Government to provide essential services for our population.

While most LGAs have experienced consistent, positive growth over recent years, the level of growth will continue to change over time. Prior to 2017, for example, 14 of Tasmania’s 29 LGAs experienced consecutive years of decline.

Creating a balance between the working and non-working age populations will assist in alleviating the burden of population ageing while also providing a population age structure which is conducive to long term, sustainable population growth.

See Appendix for more demographic data.

Collaboration across all levels of government

The first Australian Population Plan, Planning for Australia’s Future Population[2], was released in 2019 and focused on managing population growth in the largest cities in Australia, while also investing in regions and building safe and connected communities. As part of that plan, the Australian, state and territory governments, and the Australian Local Government Association agreed to the National Population and Planning Framework which sets out an approach for government collaboration on the challenges and opportunities of population change.

Population projections

An effective population strategy will need to consider future growth and decline across different LGAs. This is important as projections will inform decisions about services, programs, and infrastructure needs. It is acknowledged that although projections are based on analysis and modelling of long-term trends, uncertainty exists as to when and where growth and decline may occur.

The current (November 2022 rebased[3]) Department of Treasury and Finance population projections are shown in Chart 1 below, and this shows that the Tasmanian Government’s 2050 population target of 650,000 people remains in the medium to higher range of population growth scenarios.

Under the assumptions used in the recently released 2022 Population Statement[4] from the Australian Government's Centre for Population, the projected outcome is that Tasmania will reach this target much sooner, suggesting a population of 646,000 by 2032-33. This is 74,483 more people across the state with approximately 46 per cent living in Hobart.  In this model, population growth comes primarily (70%) from overseas migration and interstate migration (27%).

View more detail on population projections for Tasmania and its LGAs is available at www.treasury.tas.gov.au/economy/economic-data/2019-population-projections-for-tasmania-and-its-local-government-areas

Chart 1 - Total Tasmanian population, and rebased projections, as at 30 June from 1982 to 2067[5]

_{Source: ABS Cat No 3101.0,​ and updated Treasury calculations.}

The refreshed Population Strategy

Goal

The goal of the Population Strategy is to outline the way we will facilitate long-term sustainable population growth and equip Tasmania to prepare, plan for and manage future population trends, issues, and opportunities.

Desired impact – the long‑term change we are working towards

The desired long-term impact of the Population Strategy is improved wellbeing outcomes for Tasmanians.

What do we mean by wellbeing?

The Tasmanian Government has committed to developing Tasmania’s first Wellbeing Framework, following on from the release of the state’s first Child and Youth Wellbeing Strategy. It is proposed that the Population Strategy closely aligns with and supports this commitment.

Wellbeing can mean different things to different people, but it primarily includes economy, health, education, safety, housing, living standards, environment and climate, social inclusion and connection, identity and belonging, good governance and access and services.

Putting wellbeing at the heart of our approach will improve whole-of-government decision making and drive equity across different population groups.

The Population Strategy will align with, and aim to progress, the Tasmania Statement: Working Together for the Health and Wellbeing of Tasmanians[6].

What do we mean by sustainable population growth?

Sustainable population growth involves trying to balance a range of age groups. Different ages and stages of life tend to impact our relative strengths, vulnerabilities, needs and aspirations. All ages are an important part of a rich and diverse place, and the refreshed Population Strategy will work towards trying to achieve a greater proportional balance.

The University of Tasmania’s Institute for Social Change[7] identified the following factors (as shown in Table 2) as important to realising long-term sustainable population growth.

Table 2: Factors for long-term sustainable population growth

Source: National, state and territory population and Births, Australia, ABS

1. June quarter 2016 to the June quarter 2021.
2. June quarter 2006 to the June quarter 2021.
3. As at 30 June (prime working age split); calendar year (fertility).

Why is growth important?

Economies with larger populations sustain a broader range of industries, provide a wider range of employment opportunities, and tend to be more diverse, innovative, and resilient. A larger population improves the viability of services for community members and lowers costs through economies of scale.

It is recognised that population growth comes with challenges such as congestion, social cohesion, timely supply of government services to match demand and environmental impacts including maintaining Tasmania’s low emissions profile. Your suggestions for policies and initiatives that could help address these challenges are invited through this consultation process.

Scope

The refreshed approach will continue to support the Tasmanian Government’s goal of continued population growth. However, the focus will be on the qualitative aspects of sustainable growth and wellbeing outcomes.

Population planning is future focussed. It is not intended to address all immediate needs and issues through the Population Strategy, rather to better prepare for and positively influence what is ahead.

It is recognised that there are a range of Tasmanian Government strategies, and commitments that focus on critical areas related to population growth, for instance housing and health. The Population Strategy will avoid duplicating these efforts and rather look to work across government to integrate approaches to better prepare for emerging population trends and issues.

See Appendix for related Tasmanian Government Strategies.

Measuring outcomes and impact

The Population Strategy will invest in research and evaluation against agreed indices to measure change over time and wellbeing outcomes.

It is intended that the Strategy will be updated every five to 10 years with regular reviews of priorities in light of changing population dynamics and circumstances.

Principles

These principals will guide the refreshed Population Strategy:

Innovation – future orientated, adaptive to emerging needs, systems based change for improved outcomes

Sustainable – live locally, act globally, committed to future generations

Equitable – aim to ensure all living in Tasmania have the opportunity to live a good life

Collaborative – cross disciplinary and cross-sector, sharing information, insights, and resources across organisations with shared purpose, leading to increased efficiency and impact.

Objectives

To better balance our currently ageing population, an aim is to increase the proportion of people aged between 0 to 44 years. This would enable Tasmania to have a more even spread of ages and stages of life so we can achieve long-term sustainable growth.

In order to do this, the Population Strategy will focus on the following four objectives.

1. Enable planning arrangements that improve liveability.
2. Reduce unnecessary barriers to those wishing to have and raise children.
3. Align emerging employment opportunities, changing workforce needs and migration.
4. Manage a structurally ageing population.

1. Enable planning arrangements that improve liveability

Liveability means living in communities that are safe, inclusive, and environmentally sustainable. Affordable and diverse types of housing as well as easy access to places of work, schools, public open spaces, shops, health and community services and recreation are important factors people weigh up when considering moving to or leaving a place. A liveable community also has convenient and accessible transport options and infrastructure to support a range of mobility needs, walking and cycling. Liveable communities can be healthier, more economically vibrant, socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable places to live.

In 2021, the Australian Liveability Census explored what was most important in terms of neighbourhood liveability[8]. This census was a large national social research project and included 3,200 records gathered from community members in Tasmania. Key findings nationally for improving local neighbourhoods included improving walkability to local amenities and open spaces.

The Heart Foundation’s 2020-21 What Australia Wants survey measured community sentiment around qualities of neighbourhoods[9]. Tasmanians prioritised access to healthy food, housing diversity and a sense of place (that is, safety, community, and natural elements as the most important design features).

Government has a role in embedding liveability principles in coordinated policy decisions relating to the management and planning of cities, towns, and regional areas. As Tasmania grows, we have an opportunity to plan our communities in a way that creates healthy, sustainable, liveable, and connected spaces that both help attract and retain community members.

The Population Strategy will consider practical opportunities and localised approaches, with an interest in fostering collaboration between communities that are dealing with similar challenges. For instance, areas with older populations, or those trying to foster a greater sense of belonging for recently arrived community members.

“Living in a regional area is great but I’m at the point now where I’ve got to choose between staying close to my family and my mates or leaving and getting the help I need.” – Tyler

“I can’t afford to live in or around the city, so I have to live further out and even then, rent, food and bills still use up all my pay. I can’t really afford to keep my car on the road, but catching a bus means I’m either two hours early for work or I’m an hour late.” – Hayley

2. Reduce unnecessary barriers to those wishing to have and raise children

Increasing the number of births is important for sustaining a steady population growth. This can be achieved by attracting and retaining younger people who are more likely to start families, as well as supporting residents who want to have children.

Australian data[10] suggest that people are having fewer children as they feel the stresses of juggling work, life and family are too overwhelming and costly. Gender pay inequality and cultural expectations are also significant factors influencing parents’ choices for who works and when. Australian women of child-bearing age are far more likely than men to drop out of the labour force altogether. In the age group 30-39 years, women are around three times more likely than men to be outside the labour force and this has substantial long-term effects on women’s economic security. For example, one in three women in Australia retire without superannuation, and 80.6 per cent of one‑parent families in Tasmania are headed by women.

Of mothers who are employed, almost 60 per cent of those with a child under the age of six work part time compared with less than eight per cent of employed fathers. For parents whose youngest child is aged 6-14 years, close to half of all employed mothers work part time compared with less than one in 10 employed fathers.

Limited access to early childhood education and care is also impacting individual employment and income, particularly decreasing female workforce participation. The economic impacts flow on to affect children’s social, health and educational outcomes.

The Population Strategy will consider policies which permit and encourage women to stay in the labour force when they have children; including for instance, ways to increase access to affordable, quality childcare, family friendly workplaces, gender equity, and work/life balance policies. Working with the Australian and local governments along with non-government entities and communities where possible will be central to our success.

“As a nurse, my wife often works late shifts. I want to be around more to help with our toddler, but my workplace doesn’t want us working from home and we have strict work hours. Not being able to start and finish an hour earlier means I can’t be there to pick my child up from care, and we don’t have family here to help out. I can’t see how we’d be able to have another child.” – Alex

3. Align emerging employment opportunities, changing workforce needs and overseas and interstate migration

Migration is motivated by a range of factors, including war and civil unrest, climate change and the desire to create a better life. Recent research found the most common reasons for moving to (or back to) Tasmania were the natural environment, to be closer to family, and seeking a change of lifestyle.[11]

Shifts in overseas migration patterns arising from the COVID-19 pandemic have affected a significant number of sectors. Skill gaps in Tasmania are largely in the areas of health, allied health, building and construction, community services, engineering, manufacturing, agriculture, education, engineering and hospitality. Additionally, a significant proportion of job vacancies causing stress to industry are in low skilled, low paying roles.[12]

A return of migration, with targeted efforts to attract younger cohorts and address workforce skill and labour gaps is an important part of achieving sustainable population growth.[13] However, interstate, and international migration must be managed (where possible) in a way that considers the varying needs of different parts of the state.

Tasmania's skilled migration program has been established for people wanting to move to the state who have skills that we need. Skilled migrants are attracted to Tasmania because of our enviable lifestyle, career opportunities, affordable housing relative to some places, reputable schools and a globally recognised university.

The Tasmanian Government actively pursues skilled and business migrants in recognition of the significant contribution migrants make to Tasmania’s economy and cultural diversity.

Migrating and settling into a community is often also for personal and family reasons. Strong community connections have been demonstrated to lead to better retention of newly arrived community members over the longer‑term with flow on benefits for communities. There are many ways to achieve this, for example, supported volunteering and involvement in sport and recreation, arts and cultural groups along with more inclusive workplaces.

Younger and working age people tend to make up the majority of net outward interstate migration for smaller jurisdictions such as Tasmania. This is because younger and working age people often move to larger jurisdictions and cities to pursue study or employment opportunities. Improved liveability has the potential to improve the retention of long‑term locals and newly arrived community members.

The Population Strategy will consider how to strengthen attraction and retention of working age and family formation age groups. Increasing community members’ sense of belonging will be key to successful settlement and more broadly for Tasmanian’s wellbeing. It is acknowledged that stories of belonging are not complete without recognising the voices of Tasmanian Aboriginal people and their continuous custodianship of country and culture.

The Tasmanian Government is already active in attracting investment, innovation and entrepreneurship, facilitating skills and workforce development and job creation to drive state growth.

See Appendix for related Tasmanian Government Strategies <insert link to web page with list of relevant strategies>

“I often get asked ‘where are you from?’. When will other Tasmanians see me as a local? I’m here. I’ve chosen to live here. I’ve been for so many job interviews, but sense businesses only want to employ what they see as a local – people who look like them.” – Sam

“I don’t feel like I belong in my community even though I’ve been living, working and volunteering here for eight years. People on the street say racist things to me, like even when I’m just walking my dog.” – Amahle

4. Manage a structurally ageing population

The Population Strategy will look to embrace the economic and social opportunities of an ageing population.

Changing trends, for instance the shift away from residential aged care during the pandemic along with the uptake of new technologies over time, present interesting opportunities. Examples include targeted nutrition, precision health, transport and logistics, research and development, contemporary manufacturing, innovation and technological advancements, expansion of initiatives such as telemedicine, remote monitoring, and rehabilitation as well as career upskilling. People living with disability, and others requiring care and support could also benefit potentially. [14]

Facilitating intergenerational engagement could benefit health and wellbeing within an ageing population[15] for example the ABC’s social connection trials of Old People’s Home for 4 Year Olds[16] and Old People’s Home for Teenagers[17]. Consideration will be given for how existing facilities and services could be adapted for broader use and outcomes.

Additionally, ways to leverage and build on the experience, skills and perspectives of an ageing workforce and volunteer base can assist population retention, wellbeing, social connection and increased productivity. Shifting work models may mean that even though there is an increase of people approaching or at retirement age, they may still be working (working from home, part-time work, portfolio work).

“Being seen as a statistic or a problem to be managed is a bit humiliating…So many of my friends use technology now – the pandemic forced us to didn’t it? I’m online a lot, connecting with family and friends. I’d like to see seniors viewed more positively, with greater dignity for people who need care.” – Susan

“I live alone in what was our family home. It’s a bit big and lonely here but I can’t face the idea of having to pack up.” – John