Appendix - Population Strategy - Demographic Data and Related Tasmanian Government Strategies

Tasmanian Demographic Data

Current as at 10 November 2022

Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Population growth and decline

Population growth or decline is based on:

• natural increase (births minus deaths)
• net interstate migration (arrivals minus departures)
• net overseas migration (arrivals minus departures).

Tasmania has experienced unprecedented population changes over the last seven years. We've gone from being the historically slowest growing state to being the second fastest in the December quarter 2021. Growth then slowed in the March quarter 2022.

Tasmania’s Population Growth Strategy was released in September 2015 and set a target population of 650,000 Tasmanians by 2050. At that time, to achieve the target, an annual growth rate of 0.67 per cent was required. The Strategy outlined incremental population targets including 530,000 persons by 2020. This target was achieved in the September quarter 2017.

Data released by the ABS on the June quarter 2022 reported Tasmania’s population was 571,517 persons, confirming we have exceeded our 2030 population target of 570,000 eight years early. From where we are now, an average population growth of approximately 0.45 per cent per annum is needed to ensure the 2050 population target is achieved. This equates to a net annual increase of around 2,700 persons per year.

View more on overseas migration data methodology: https://www.abs.gov.au/methodologies/overseas-migration-methodology/2020-21

Interstate Migration (out and in)

The table below outlines the interstate migration in and out of Tasmania in the year to the 2021 Census (conducted on 10 August 2021)[2]. The measure is Place of usual residence one year ago. As of the 2021 Census, Tasmania received its largest number of interstate migrants from Victoria, while Queensland was the jurisdiction that welcomed the largest number of migrants from Tasmania over the period.

Issues impacting interstate migration data

The ABS uses Medicare change of address data to inform its net interstate migration estimates. The Medicare data showed an implausibly high number of moves across Australia during 2021, which the ABS attributed to the widespread updating of Medicare records during the COVID-19 vaccination program.

To adjust for this, the ABS revised its normal Medicare under-count adjustments, and therefore its interstate migration estimates, for recent quarters.

The disruption to travel patterns following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and international border restrictions has led to the ABS making some methodology changes, and more frequent revisions, to overseas migration data.

Of note is that in the March quarter 2022 preliminary estimates were modelled on traveller behaviour from the March quarter of 2018. Estimates prior to the March quarter 2022 remain modelled based on the behaviour of similar travellers from one year earlier.[3]

Cultural diversity in Tasmania

Most people living in Tasmania were born in Australia.

As at the 2021 Census, the top countries of birth for people living in Tasmania that were not born in Australia were England, China (excluding the special administrative regions and Taiwan), Nepal, India and New Zealand. The proportion of people who were born overseas has increased over time. In 1971, 10.2 per cent of people were born overseas. This has increased to 12.0 per cent in 2016, and 15.3 per cent in 2021.

An ageing population

There are two types of ageing, i.e., numerical (increasing absolute number of older population) and structural (increasing relative proportion of older population), and ageing can be affected through changes to fertility, mortality, and migration[4].

Tasmania’s population is four years older than the national average at 42. As at the 2021 Census, the latest ABS population data by age showed a positive increase in the 25-39 age group as at 30 June 2021, compared with 30 June 2016, growing by around 25,000 people, about 20 per cent of the State’s total population. This increase is the result of two things – increased domestic and international immigration and significantly younger Tasmanians deciding to stay and work in their home State and raise a family.

The size of the 70 to 84 year old age group also increased over the same five year period, likely due to our older base from the previous five years, increased longevity and migration. At the same time, there are now less people in Tasmania aged between 0 and 9, 15 to 19 and 40 to 49 years of age than in 2016. As such, our population is anticipated to continue to grow older over time.

* The age at which half the population is older and half is younger

Only four of Tasmania’s 29 LGAs have a median age equal to, or below the Australian median age of 38.4, and 19 of the 29 LGAs have a median age above the Tasmanian median age of 42. Tasmania’s oldest LGAs is Flinders with a median age of 58 and the youngest LGA is Brighton with a median age of 34.5.

Tasmania had a lower proportion of people aged 20 to 44 years (31 per cent) than Australia as a whole (35 per cent). This in part reflects young adults pursuing education and employment opportunities interstate.

Tasmania also had a higher proportion of people aged 55 years and over (34 per cent) than Australia (29 per cent). This partly reflects a trend of adults in this age group moving into the state.

Prime working age population

Tasmania’s population has seen a significant shift since 2006. Although the population itself has grown, Tasmania’s working age population has reduced by 2.6 per cent since 2006. The percentage of Tasmanians aged over 65 has increased by 5.4 per cent. This is an increase of 44,893 people. The portion of young people under the age of 15 has also reduced by 2.8 per cent. Overall, this shift in population is another demonstration of Tasmania’s structurally ageing population.

What do our families look like?

The 2021 Census showed that the share of Tasmanian couple families with children has decreased by 4.6 percentage points compared with 2006 Census data.

Tasmania, over the same period, has also seen an increase in the share of couple families without children by 4 percentage points.

Fertility rate

Tasmania’s total fertility rate is low at 1.64 as at 30 June 2021. A fertility rate of 2.1 is the conventional replacement level and is optimum for sustainable population growth that is not so heavily dependent on migration[17].

Housing in Tasmania

As of the September quarter 2022, Tasmania has the fourth lowest mean dwelling price in Australia, with a mean dwelling price of $653,000[19].

Tasmania has less diverse housing compared to the rest of Australia, with the majority of housing being separate houses. The dominant dwelling type in Tasmania is a separate house which made up 87.7 per cent of occupied private dwellings at the time of the 2021 Census. 12.1 per cent of Tasmania’s housing are either semi-detached, row, terrace, townhouses, flats or apartments, while for the rest of Australia this was 27.5 per cent.

Households

The average number of people per household in Tasmania as at the 2021 Census was 2.4 persons. Tasmania has seen an increase in the share of lone person households of 2.1 percentage points compared with the 2006 Census and as of the 2021 Census, Tasmania had 3.4 per cent more lone person households when compared to Australia.

Income

As of May 2022, Tasmania has the lowest average weekly full-time earnings in Australia for all persons, with average weekly earnings of $1,568.50, where the Australian average was $1,769.80.

The median weekly household income for Tasmania as of the 2021 Census was $1,358 which was an increase of 23.5 per cent on the previous 2016 Census.

The median family weekly income for Tasmania increased by $321 to $1,720 in 2021 but was still $400 less than the median income for Australia at $2,120.

In the 2021 Census, there had been a 5.2 per cent reduction in the percentage of Tasmanian households with less than $650 in total household weekly income, and there has also been an increase of 6.7 per cent for households with more than $3,000 in total household weekly income compared with the 2016 Census. This shows some improved economic outcomes for Tasmanians. However, in the 2021 Census, Tasmania had 4.6 per cent more families with less than $650 in total weekly income compared to Australia. Tasmania also has 9.3 per cent less families with more than $3,000 weekly income.

Employment through a gender lens

The Gender Pay gap for Australia in May 2022 was 14.1 per cent. The Gender Pay gap in Tasmania for this time was 7.5 per cent.

In May 2021, 69.4 per cent of males in Australia aged 15-74 were fully engaged in work or study, while only 48.8 per cent of women were.

One in three women in Australia retire without superannuation.

As at September 2022, 79.1 per cent of total employed males were employed in full time work in Tasmania, while only 48.9 per cent of total employed females were employed in full-time work.

128,000 females are employed in Tasmania as at September 2022.

How Tasmania compares to the rest of Australia

For a comparison between Tasmania’s population and the rest of Australia, the Australian Government’s Centre for Population has conducted analysis of the national, state and territory population publication from the ABS. This includes analysis on the components of population growth for each state and territory.

For analysis on the March 2022 population data, please see https://population.gov.au/sites/population.gov.au/files/2022-09/econote_national_st_population_mar2022.pdf

Further analysis of Tasmania’s population

Building population resilience in Tasmania: The pandemic and beyond, Sebastian Kocar, Ella Horton, Lisa Denny, Ami Seivwright, Libby Lester, June 2022, research report prepared by the Institute for Social Change, University of Tasmania

https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/1619616/Building-population-resilience-in-Tasmania_FULL.pdf

Related Tasmanian Government strategies

As at 7/12/2022

Disclaimer: Please note Tasmanian Government policy, strategies and action plans are regularly updated. This list reflects a point in time only.

The Population Strategy will avoid duplicating the work being done by other Tasmanian Government strategies and rather look to work across government to generate new and collaborative approaches to better prepare for emerging population trends and issues.

Department of Health

Tasmania Statement – Working Together for the Health and Wellbeing of Tasmanians.

Health and wellbeing

The Tasmania Statement, originally signed in 2019, is a commitment to collaboration on long term solutions to address the social and economic factors that influence health. It recognises that Tasmania’s open spaces, diverse communities and strong relationships are key to supporting continued improvements in health and wellbeing.  The Statement has recently been updated to directly reference the impact of climate change and poverty on health and wellbeing.
https://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/policy/premiers_health_and_wellbeing_advisory_council

Healthy Tasmanian Strategic Plan 2022-26

Health and wellbeing

Healthy Tasmania is the Government's plan for preventive health in Tasmania. The Plan brings together communities, services and all levels of government to work in partnership for improved health and wellbeing.
https://www.health.tas.gov.au/about/what-we-do/strategic-programs-and-initiatives/healthy-tasmania-strategic-plan

Our Healthcare Future Health System long-term reforms

Health and wellbeing

Our Healthcare Future: Advancing Tasmanian’s Health provides a united vision that all Tasmanians are supported by a world-class, innovative and integrated health system. It provides a policy direction for healthcare in Tasmania over the next 20 years.
www.health.tas.gov.au/about/what-we-do/strategic-programs-and-initiatives/our-healthcare-future

Homes Tasmania

Tasmanian Housing Strategy

Housing

The Tasmanian Government is developing Tasmania's first 20-year housing strategy. The Tasmanian Housing Strategy will build on the recent record investment made by the Tasmanian Government in the supply of social and affordable housing and homelessness initiatives.

https://tashousingstrategy.homestasmania.com.au/

Department of Premier and Cabinet

Tasmanian Planning Policies

Planning reform

The Tasmanian Planning Policies (TPPs) will, for the first time, establish the comprehensive, high-level policy framework for the planning system and will cover important issues, not just for planners and decision makers, but for all Tasmanians. The TPPs will shape the future for Tasmania through informing strategic land use planning and the planning rules in the Tasmanian Planning Scheme. The TPPs will also guide the comprehensive review of the three regional land use strategies in line with the recommendations from the Premier’s Economic and Social Recovery Advisory Council (PESRAC) Report released in March 2021.

https://planningreform.tas.gov.au/planning-reforms-and-reviews/tasmanian-planning-policies

Closing the Gap – Tasmanian Implementation Plan 2021

Social cohesion and belonging, Health and wellbeing

The Tasmanian implementation plan commits the Tasmanian Government and the Tasmanian representative on the Coalition of Peaks, the Tasmanian Aboriginal Centre (the Partners) to implement all of the clauses of the National Agreement in consultation and partnership with Tasmanian Aboriginal people and Aboriginal community controlled organisations - It sets priorities that challenge all government agencies and Aboriginal community-controlled organisations to work differently to overcome the entrenched inequality faced by too many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people so that their life outcomes are equal to all Tasmanians.

https://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0027/228852/Closing-the-Gap-Tasmanian-Implementation-Plan-August-2021.pdf

Tasmanian Women’s Strategy 2022-27

Social cohesion and belonging

The Tasmanian Women’s Strategy 2022-2027 aims to provide the Tasmanian community with a meaningful and sustainable way to achieve gender equality in this State. The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected women in Tasmania. The Tasmanian Government is keen to build on current investment into women’s economic security, leadership opportunities, safety, and health and wellbeing to improve outcomes for women and girls as we address the impacts of the pandemic.

https://www.women.tas.gov.au/tasmanian_government_policy_and_programs/tasmanian-womens-strategy-2022-2027

Community Services Industry Plan 2021-2031

Community services, Social cohesion and belonging

The 10-year Tasmanian Community Services Industry Plan (Industry Plan) is for governments, peak bodies and community services organisations. It provides an overarching framework to guide strategic industry development and transition planning.

https://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/228041/Community-Services-Industry-Plan-2021-2031-web.pdf

Accessible Island: Tasmania’s Disability Framework for Action 2018-2021

Community services, Social cohesion and belonging

On 3 December 2021 Australia’s Disability Strategy (ADS) 2021-2031 was launched and planning has planning has commenced to inform the implementation of the next iteration of Accessible Island. The next iteration of Accessible Island will be developed in the context of the new ADS, and the current review of the Disability Services Act (DSA) and work to establish Tasmania’s first Disability Commissioner. This will include extensive consultation across the community and sector as well as through the Premier’s Disability Advisory Council and the Minister’s Disability Consultative Group.

https://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/cpp/community-and-disability-services/tasmanian-disability-services-act-2011/tasmanian-disability-services-act-2011-review/resources/accessible_island_tasmanias_disability_framework_for_action_2018-2021_dfa

Food Relief to Food Resilience: Tasmanian Food Security Strategy 2021-2024

Social cohesion and belonging

The Tasmania Government’s Food Relief to Food Resilience Action Plan is a three-year plan that contains actions to achieve the goal of the Food Relief to Food Resilience – Tasmanian Food Security Strategy 2021 – 2024. The whole-of-government Action Plan has been developed to implement activity across each of the focus areas identified in this Strategy.

https://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/cpp/community-policy-and-engagement/food-relief-to-food-resilience-tasmanian-food-security-strategy-2021-2021

Our Multicultural Island: Tasmania’s Multicultural Action Plan 2019-2022

Community services, Social cohesion and belonging

Since 2014 there has been an increased focus and interest in migration and multiculturalism at both a national and state level. The new Multicultural Policy therefore establishes a set of principles and values that we want to bring to life in the Tasmanian community.

The Policy is accompanied by an Action Plan that sets out the specific actions that the Tasmanian Government will undertake to achieve the priorities of the Policy.

https://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/cpp/community-policy-and-engagement/our-multicultural-island-tasmanias-multicultural-policy-and-action-plan-2019-2022

Active Ageing Plan

Community services, Social cohesion and belonging

Today people are living longer than previous generations. We are all ageing. Almost 180 000 Tasmanians (30.5%) of the population are expected to be over 65 years by 2060. The Tasmanian Government’s vision is to build an age-friendly state in which all Tasmanians regardless of their age, can stay active, healthy, resilient and connected to their community and the economy.

https://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/cpp/community-policy-and-engagement/active_ageing_plan

Department of State Growth

Hobart City Deal

Infrastructure, Housing, Economic development and jobs,

This Strategy relates to the sphere of Mobility and transport, Infrastructure ad Housing.

The 10-year Hobart City Deal provides a framework for improved planning, collaboration and coordination between the three levels of government to support the growth and development of Hobart.
https://www.hobartcitydeal.com.au

Launceston City Deal

Mobility and transport, Infrastructure, Housing

The Launceston City Deal is a ten-year agreement between the Australian and Tasmanian Governments, and the City of Launceston, that will shape our city’s future, create jobs and generate economic growth for the region by building on our natural advantages. The City Deal will position Launceston as one of Australia’s most liveable and innovative regional cities, with growing incomes and falling levels of disadvantage.
https://www.launcestoncitydeal.com.au/home

Business Growth Strategy 2022-26

Economic development and jobs

The Business Growth Strategy 2026 will establish objectives for government and the private sector to create an environment that supports business growth in Tasmania. Currently in draft format, the final strategy is currently being developed and will be released on this website later in 2022. The release of the Business Growth Strategy 2026 will be followed by a series of implementation plans that will identify the activities to be delivered against the objectives set out within the strategy.
https://www.business.tas.gov.au/home/image_tiles/top_row/business_growth_strategy_2022

Workforce plans and reports

Skills, training, and workforce growth

The workforce plans on this page are industry owned, industry led plans for skills development. Workforce plans identify actions which industry and other stakeholders will undertake to support increased workforce development activity, to meet current and future workforce needs.

https://www.skills.tas.gov.au/about/the_tasmanian_workforce/workforce_plans

Tasmanian Walking and Cycling for Active Transport Strategy

Mobility and transport

The Tasmanian Walking and Cycling for Active Transport Strategy is a key component of the Tasmanian Urban Passenger Transport Framework, which aims to promote walking and cycling as viable and desirable forms of transport through improved infrastructure, land use planning and behavioural change.
https://www.stategrowth.tas.gov.au/policies_and_strategies/framework/walking-cycling

Road projects and planning

Mobility and transport

There are a range of projects and plans for transport related infrastructure.

https://www.transport.tas.gov.au/projectsplanning/plans,_strategies_and_policies

Transport Access Strategy

Mobility and transport

The Transport Access Strategy sets out the Tasmanian Government’s approach to providing better integrated and coordinated land-based passenger transport services for all Tasmanians, particularly those disadvantaged through economic circumstances, age or disability.
https://www.stategrowth.tas.gov.au/policies_and_strategies/transport_access_strategy

Cultural and Creative Industries

Economic development and jobs, Social cohesion and belonging

The Creative and Cultural Industries Strategy was developed to guide existing program delivery, broader collaboration across government and the community, and identify opportunities for future growth through Arts Tasmania, Screen Tasmania and the Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery.
https://www.stategrowth.tas.gov.au/cas/ccir_strategy

Tasmanian Renewable Energy Action Plan

Energy, Environment and climate

The Tasmanian Government has identified renewable energy as a key economic driver for the future. The Tasmanian Renewable Energy Action Plan (TREAP) will be key to the Government’s vision of utilising renewable energy to benefit all Tasmanians through job creation, helping our environment and driving investment and economic growth.
https://recfit.tas.gov.au/renewables/tasmanian_renewable_energy_action_plan

Climate Change Action Plan

Environment and climate

Tasmania’s climate change action plan (Climate Action 21) concluded in June 2021. Development of the next whole-of-government action plan is progressing after consultation in early 2021. The new action plan will build on the themes and actions from Climate Action 21 and initiatives will be developed in consultation with the community.
https://recfit.tas.gov.au/climate/climate_change_action_plan

Department of Natural Resources and the Environment

Growing Tas Agriculture – Research, Development and Extension for 2050

Economic development and jobs, Environment and climate

The Tasmanian Government has an ambitious goal to grow the annual value of the State’s agriculture to $10 billion by 2050. Investment in agricultural research, development and extension (RD&E) is a key factor to achieving the growth rate necessary to reach this target.
https://nre.tas.gov.au/Documents/Growing%20Tas%20Agriculture-RDE%20for%202050.pdf

Draft Tasmanian Biosecurity Strategy 2022-2027

Environment and climate

The Tasmanian Biosecurity Strategy is the high-level document that sets the overall direction for Tasmania's biosecurity system.
https://nre.tas.gov.au/biosecurity-tasmania/biosecurity-policy-strategy-publications/draft-tasmanian-biosecurity-strategy-2022-2027

Rural Water Use Strategy

Environment and climate

Tasmania’s Rural Water Use Strategy (the Strategy) takes a collaborative, science based and long-term approach to looking after the state’s freshwater. The Strategy recognises that Tasmania’s water management system needs to be informed by and respond to emerging trends and improve the security, quality and resilience of our water resources over the long-term.
https://nre.tas.gov.au/water/water-legislation-policies-and-strategies/rural-water-use-strategy

Tasmania’s Agri-Food Plan

Environment and climate, Economic development and jobs

Tasmania’s Sustainable Agri-Food Plan presents a framework for action, articulates goals, and outlines the initiatives we are delivering to sustainably grow the agriculture and food sectors in Tasmania, including seafood.
https://nre.tas.gov.au/agriculture/tasmanias-agri-food-plan

Department of Education, Children and Young People

Striving for Practice Excellence: Our Strategic Direction 2021 – 2024

Education

A Strategy that aims for Tasmania’s children, young people and their families thrive.
https://publicdocumentcentre.education.tas.gov.au/library/Shared%20Documents/Children,-Youth-and-Families-Strategic-Directions-Document-accessible.pdf

Recognition of international qualifications

Education, Skills training and workforce growth, Economic development and jobs

https://www.tasc.tas.gov.au/students/international-students/existing-qualifications/

EAL students

Education, Skills training and workforce growth, Social cohesion and belonging, Economic development and jobs

The English as an Additional Language Service provides resources to develop English language competence. The resources provided facilitate access, participation and engagement in mainstream educational activities.
https://www.decyp.tas.gov.au/supporting-student-need/support-students-english-additional-language/

Temporary residents program

Education, Skills training and workforce growth, Social cohesion and belonging, Economic development and jobs

The Temporary Resident Program (TRP) helps students on temporary visas to enrol in Tasmanian Government Schools
https://www.decyp.tas.gov.au/students/international-students/temporary-resident-program/

Child and Family Learning Centres (CFLCs)

Social cohesion and belonging

Child and Learning Family Centres are places for families with children birth to 5 to access a range of services. The purpose of Child and Family Learning Centres is to improve the health and well-being, education and care of Tasmania’s very young children by supporting parents and enhancing accessibility of services in the local community.
https://www.decyp.tas.gov.au/parents-carers/early-years/child-family-centres/

Strong Families Safe Kids

Social cohesion and belonging

Strong Families Safe Kids: Next Steps Action Plan 2021-2023 continues the journey of changing the way government and non-government services work together to shift the curve and improve the wellbeing outcomes for all Tasmanian children through a public health approach.
https://strongfamiliessafekids.tas.gov.au/